just some fracking remarks

these days half of the world evolves around fracking, our future does, the us does, the crimea conflict does, Donetsk does, Cameron does, and the bbc does.
it publishes "science" these days that England is sinking, yes it will have earthquakes,
due....
what in fact? I think they suggest the metropolitan load of concrete.
in places, muddy ones close to the coast it could even be true, but it will surely not exaggerate earthquakes.
except for the sake of the fracking industry.
so I thought it would be nice to compile a guestimate of the scales and kinds of disasters in the make.

recently I realised why fracking uses such immense, unsustainable, environmentally dooming quantitys of water,
now I have read some reports from the north of north America in wich it shows that strategy already failed, shows for me...

and as a challenge (being overall more familiar with English tectonics and lignites) what it would mean for earthquakes.
that was (earth) shocking.

my estimate was that common earthquakes (3-4) for England would generally rise with an ordre of magnitude, or perhaps two.

that is ofcourse when nothing unseemingly happens.

you could for example destabilise the fault that divides Scotland and England, in such a case the maximum magnitude of quakes would easily jump another point.

a little bit more worrying still is why they actually need all that water.
the earth under us is rather full of voids, technically on the level of methane so much as everything is a void , by forcing methane from these carbonates a few things are bound to happen,
simply put the layers targeted will crunch, and loose a load of mass, become more void.

that is on a scale not easily comparable by traditional coalmining. we have no view on what extend the fracked and fracking effects can or will take place. as soon as a layer is targeted it is generally out of reach for inspection, although I think there will be attempts to bore through cheap early fracking projects and access deeper layers.

coal, lignite and shale layers are commonly extensive. they may reach from London to warshaw (rarely) or from warchau to Donetsk (commonly),

where and how such coal layers cross gas and minor-oil sources no one knows.

in how much layers touch under the earth is also pertinently unknown.
..

well so the reason they need so much water is ..
to keep it from burning..

ok. check coalmines..
did we manage to keep them from burning year in year out?
never.

in some locations in the us I a already a permanent seismic rumble is apparent.
every dust, every crunch btw. behaves like a liquid in comparison to usual geological layers.

or perhaps a swamp is a better way to express it.

in some cases it might even dampen an earthquake, for that reason, but it is more rational to expect something aking to conductivity for tectonic slips.

given the wrong circumstances we may end up creating something like the atjeh quake under a continent.

still, even if earthquakes are on the rise every where fracking is tested or perpetrated, the worst is still to come, we have not even started to touch the potential of fragging, ask the industry,
in practice I doubt projects once started can really be stopped, although ofcourse the halting of operations would achieve something.

in any case, assuming they continue and we see a rise in quake magnitude now already in the order of a whole to one and half points.....
in few years...

it could be that much worse. anyhow, every location that is sensitive to earthquakes, and that is not England very much, will be in a rather extreme risk. if for example in turkey fracking becomes an industry, the catastrophes to come could be of a proportion unknown before.

also and perhaps painfully, the fracking will loose productivity sooner than anyone'd wish..
but the quakes won't stop then.

1000 years for that appears a most optimist estimate.

geneva 2 peace negotiations.

haven't been here in a while, a surprise is never bad, we are used to weatherforecasts at the start of the year, warm humid dry, all, here where we have the generators we could wish for more wind.

so geneva 2

i just start writing straight ahead, only because it will be very complicated to posit an original thought
and the matter is ofcourse thoroughly complicated i dare to go with so little immediate preparation.

i love that the notion is there we have to start a new thing, or a clean thing, and that is true, the negotiations must optimally express the central points.

a summary is that the syrians do want the regime to change, wich means assad to go, the former state to be replaced by something different, and influential positions and authoritys redistributed.

personally i fully support that, my conviction is no regime justifies torture, and certainly now no regime can still justify it by as much was known from syria three years ago.

i could elaborate, military means, targetting civilians, the inept and impossible casualty registers that are nevertheless maintained and profiled in as consistent as absurd style.
wich is a bad "omen", a bad calculus.

next there is assads position, i want everything you can have nothing, my people are scared, your people are scared, perhaps that works.

surely the definition will sound different in him, however the only way to consider that is to remove assad from the negation(equation). allawites, minoritys, kurds, moderate, and to a further if not that extremely pronounced extend, women and children, civilians, deserve each the safety and protection they need.

the nasty thing here is that the answer is "yes we know, that is not assad"

typically one fear is countered by the other the fear for injustice is countered by the fear for insecurity,

taking things back to the initial perspective, wich they from my point of view very much deserve. the torture, arrests. executions. in 100s and soon thousands hardly anyone in the whole of syria supported assad.

the poison of the terror tale took the usual age of time to rot in.
and so did the horror.

unfortunately we are not done here, erdogan is a complication for the kurds, and such may be polemic or maybe premature, what will surely pay a decisive role is the balance of power.

perhaps it would be nicer to say the balance of sympathisers, it goes too far.
i sympathise with assad, but with none of his state, i sympathise with Russia and i like putin, i don't sympathise with putin or his politics with syria, i sympathise with Obama, and i would want the outcome to be a conceivable succes for him, i trust their methodology and institutionalisms least.

it is the balance of power, or powers.

i have 'ahum' an unfortunate happy lot of experience with helping out balancing power, so i will once again develop some valuable insights,
good i just started writing;)

the basical point is you want to satisfy all. it goes so far that if the division and much to my personal regret i fear it should, in these nazions must take place, a kurdistan, a shia irak, a sunni irak, a sunni irak syria, a shia syria, a secular syria, and perhaps a tad more, it is worth contemplating rewarding the israelians forall the good germans did in the sense of handing them an obligatory palestinean israelian oblast.

perhaps it is not a good idea but the opportunity is relevant. it may be to early to risk iraks deplorable stability, it may be the most relevant part of the whole story.

i am sorry if it is. i have strongly voiced and hoped irak could be federal, that the cooperation and distribution of wealth would hold.

south sudan could become a reminder of the opposite.

in short you would "reward" each protagonist harbour and land in a negotiable yet at least attempted proportional manner. not half easy in syria.

israel i do not fear, i fear a croatisation of israel though. where it stretches coasts and takes people every resource to trade and the seas and oceans.

fortunately it has a coast. since there are at least three factions represented in syria for whom acces to the sea is relevant, and of life interest, it looks like the most problematical detail.

in case syria needs to try and stay whole, assad has to step up. an internationally organised media and campaign infrastructure set up , and elections held, (strongly and transparantly checked domestically)the different interests must be just equaled out, expressing i would think partnership, responsability , reason, the acknowledgement of the interests of the syrian people.

if they will, and if we will know in how far they tried, i wonder.

dynastys

this is about egypt,
egypt is a complicated problem, really somewhat complicated, there is no majority in the electorate to support the army, and hopefully and probably not anyone else,

so there is an ancient technique to solve difficult geopolitical problems and basically every kind of problems, it is probably called directionairy logic, and it goes like this,
(i am not sure if i can do this aloud)

the germans are to blame,

lemmesee, am i still correct?
yes.

ok.

what did they do and who did it for them?

am i still correct?

yes, the germans are to blame, and yes, they make other people do everything for them, ok

they burned the churches, no, that is actually a good idea,
so alltho the germans are to blame they probably did it by accident,

and still had someone to do it for them, so they in turn can give someone the blame, and don't have to do the work.

am i still correct? they burned the churches by accident and someone didnt get payed,

wait...
the poor people in egypt didnt get payed....
aha..'
that fits the theory just finely,
the germans had the poor people in egypt burn the churches and didnt pay them,

am i still correct,
who else would do such a thing? i am still correct.

so why did the germans cause this to happen?

that would be to steal everything,

germans do that for a reason.

correct? passes.

there must still be something left in egypt,
germans like camels, maybe it is them.
no that is not it, it need to be something other people also like to promise to the egyptians they won't pay.
only germans would like one,

(yes that is correct but a state secret)

state secrets help to solve problems,
what do germans have to do with state secrets?
oh that is a stupid question..

so it's not those.

something else.

ah i get it, the germans are jealous that the copts don't like that

so the copts are not the germans.

aha
the copts are innocent, someone else did it.

a very different climate

it is remarkable how much our weather changed in two years.
two years ago if even it was clouded the upward trend of temperatures was all obvious,
this year and the last it has mostly been cold, the rain that stayed away for 3-4 years seems to be coming.
in the least it is wetter than the last year.

don't know what to make of it, for now europe has allways been temperate, and i suppose it means potatoes.other areas of the world experience incredible heat usually.
the picture is very misleading. december will still be warm this year, unless even more dramtic changes arrive.

for our health it is actually not bad, cold rain and wind will get us more resistant and basically wipe out lots of small organisms.

so that is one side or a medal with more.

next we still have the deathstruggle of capitalism.  one may wonder if assads excesses are tolerated for a reason. Obama has a hard time explaining how he coopts capitalism, mostly in a somwhat control freakish sense. or perhaps it is all out of his control in usia.
overreaction makes the day.

at least they worry about what the stigmas did to innocent people in boston. and in the betweens the guatanamo detainees are finally again rewarded human status somewhere.

kerry isnt doing bad. he tries to talk with everyone, alltho now he was in israle he was all to ready to hype iran.
i can think, why bother.

on the other hand with the somanieth relgious elections in the make we have reason to complain.

there will be a new peaceconference about syria, probably it will stay with the old refusal of assad to do away with the old regime and install a new form of government, wich is the question.
however by now things have become less clear, some are distracted by the radical shape of sunni frustration, and all of us fear the next autoritarian muslem regimes that could be in the make.
if only people would have only secular states things would be so much easier.

perhaps assad now boasts his secularity, and perhaps with due right, after all this is a straightforward monarchy with shimmery implications..

and so are the rest of us, i wanted to react to a paul rosenberg article about austerity.. it's ridiculousness,

there are many structural social arguments against what is called austerity.

the practice of further marginalising and impovering swats of the populace, and a form of criminalisation that i cannot begin to understand the psychological effets on many people,

would be one.

however there are many others, for one thing there exists such a thing as the consumer that consumes basic and elementary needs. those are the most usefull, since they maintain an economic infrastructure that allows the necessitys of life to be produced in a manageable way.

so with any such austerioty actually the premise should be to support the poorer sections of the populace in having that manageable claim on the economy.

next by forcibly putting to labour, and outsourcing the traditional worker contracts there is actually a whole new dimension to slavery added. it is long ago people did not even have the opportunty to have longrunning and appropriate contracts. pensions that have been "hollowed out"(note that must be fraude with the nature of finances), deserve a mention..

we live for a tale

many people have been working for a promise of a contract for many years, etc.
that is kind of new, the rich or corporations and the state united in turning the populace into a crowd of minimally with rights bestowed anonymous covertly controlled herd.

wich would cover media. geared to make excuses that bear no comprehensible meaning for the banks , the financial sector, the rich, and everyone who offers the money..
class justice.

huge storys are made of small incidents. 1000s upon 1000s die in remote places of the world, yet if one english soldier get killed the paranoia is complete, masses of innocent are arrested, huge terror plots hypothesized.
likewise ins stockholm, exagerated poverty and exagerated police authority lead to the predictable,
now the 67 years old guy is " än armed man " the real story is probably still more prosaic.

i figure the camerionetic model will be applied.
harsh racist punishments, i figure that is why they did not stop that much sooner.

anyway.. so far so good the cops didnt shoot any extra .

a ridiculously discriminating enquete

so the dutch government decided to do some make up.

a 'real' poll about discrimination, usually i would not have noticed the enveloppe or answered,
but in this case, discrimination is so much the modus operandi of the dutch system and police repression, i decided to fill in the form (also because probably i would have been registered as a significant no about discrimination)

so for the eye of it (it was personally adressed, and i had to fill in a specific personal code),  there were some lies intentionally played.

i thought it may help to see how they effectuate those discriminating policys.
what a disappointment, it was very obvious.

i didnt memorise the whole thing, yet for an example, did i sport last year..

yes / no
ok ok. i suppose
so i fill in yes

was i discriminated during sports yes/ no ..
well i happened to sport somewhere i could not be discriminated,  on purpose,

so how about not applicable as an option?
no such option with quite a few such questions,(1)


i suppose they intend to proudly anounce no discrimination on those questions,
also i must infere, since everywhere else discrimination is daily practise and curriculum,
actually they will be disappointed i have sported without allowing them the chance to discriminate.


so it is dangerous for me to fill it in.(2)
more so because it poses to be anonymous, yet asks specific questions about my income...
oh well i am used to being terrorised and stolen from, disenfranchised and subject of arbitrary procedures and police respression (aka terror) it scares me no extra even if at one point i thought,
i probably better not fill this in..

fear however is exactly what they intend to spread, also with such obviously dubious objectivity,
and giving in to fear could only make us smaller.
am looking forward to an outcome now where so abouts every of my answers will be denied to have been given,

i also assume they will intensify their political discrimination campaign (a carefully evaded circumstance in the poll)(3) as i anounced they had not yet made me unhappy.

unhappyness there can be for so many reasons, a bit extra or new fascism is not going to get me under, never.

a bit extra capitalist blackmail won't make me more unhappy either, if i had been very sensitive to that i would have been deadly depressed 30 years ago and more.

i can say only this, fuck the dutch fascist system.

(1) for otherwise being discounted as insincere, being no registered sports, and actually sporting alone, or with a friend, i filled in no ofcourse.

(2) yes, before getting specific about income they ask if i feel intimidated, obviously i do, 50 years of prejudice , racism, and arbtrary measures would..

(3) institutionally, in shops, through even photos of my face , even if i did not steal a thing in decades, (a justicial file anyone?, my ass. they discriminate forever), police records, income-wise, every other official connect, like when my rights have been infringed and i would be dependend of police or judges.
it matters a lot for them to discriminate and intimidate you in the hopes of imposing capitalism, that is obviously the target of the intimidation, get you so small you would start being egoist, scared to help anyone, greedy, selfabsorbed, thinking of money daily. really i am glad i am not from a newer brainwashed generation, i think i would die if i was a young person now, or get locked up in psychiatry for being not a capitalist, not dishonest, not merciless.

mixing agressive chemicals

there is a lot of hodgepodge going on these days around something called "fracking" a word censored..

still we see plenty articles, that prohibited a factual reaction in that way, talking nonsense.

in concert with that there is a campaign consistently stating the wrong things, the unscientific things, the usual public information rubbish , half untruth, half propaganda..

people are "getting the gas"

well there is no gas where they are getting it, there is stone.
usually just coal , sometimes in hard to exploit layers, oftentimes in just good mining geology.

fraccing (the dutch version of the word, with a rather undutch cc, probably just to further confuse matters) is the pumping of agressive chemicals and the drinkwater supply deep, and sometimes not so deep as you'd want, in the bottom,

there the layers of shale are supposed to crumble and release their carbon content in the form of methane.

obviously there are better methods and certainly more sustainable methods to get at methanes from deep coal layers, yet that is not the point, who cares about the future..

the real problem is that in between the boasting and bigtalk about employment the corporations do not give a damn, and rather blow up and waste significant energy reserves in the hope of a quick methane profit,

that obviously works, it is like the famous coalmine fires that keep on burning, you dont need to do much to overheated pressurised coal to get some explosive and toxic mix out,

what remains, is a catastrophe, coal is gone and unmeasurable and unseen quantitiys of chemicals and toxins travelling our geology, in other words, moving through the bottom under our feet.

that may cause any kind of disaster, simple pollution, earthquakes, tectonic instabilitys, oilwells blowing out, a great waste of resources (coal and water) unemployment and wealth inequality..
unfortunately that is all much sought for in the industry,

for extra spice it is added that a public representation , the governents and eu parliament readily swallows the next bubble, this is going to be a hit.

well it ain't, already in the 50s and 60 dutch shell explored the options for shalegas, and as a resultt the possibilities and impossibilities have been well known for a long period.

some of the many difficulties are, where you get the coal to turn into gas (not release the gas as the actualitys on tv keep insisting to say, it already turns into gas by earthwarmth, so if you were just carefull you would have a vast and nearly everlasting resource..
another is that it only works for thicker layers of coal, layers that are usually economically viable,
yet another is it will not work in a very stable underground, there has to be some chalk or voids to conduct the chemicals, and a s a result it is used on relatively porous layers to unknown effect..

that is to say earthquakes, massive pollution inefficiency and even completely lost investments belong to the possibilities in many nations were the governments and parliaments are blindly following their paychecks lead, the "oil"industry (or perhaps better put : the energy imperialists).

gl with that, but don't be fooled again, there is allways a reason for a lie "release the gas""" get at the gas", it is they want to get at the coal with no effort.

and like i mentioned twice before, when you can get the coal out through labour and employment, yes chances are you can blow it with chemicals at cheaper.

that is all.


k.. next we had a big event, not rili big, many people in irak and pakistan died throughout these days with noone noticing, but hugely televised and in the mediafocus.

some weird bomb attack in boston.no i don't want to write that much about it, two observations are, in the hood of the probable culprits (patriots day being the day for extreme nutwingers to blow innocents), people talk about torture all the time, torture and lynch justice to be more precisely.
i suppose they did not get the message yet their plot is about to be uncovered.

the other weirdest thing is that whenever someone tries to analyse the photographs of blackest backpack carrying guys in cia gear, there will be a nut that starts saying anonimously ïts the mossad, its the mossad,

incredible ofcourse, but that seems to be the idea, by shouting its the mossad when it may just as probably be the fbi or cia, the people that want to think this comical detail over are supposed to be anti-israel anti semites.
i do not think it is a coincedence we now meet this hasbara.

neway, i found out some more factoids and indiscrepancys, what i hope most is people will not now and not in the future anymore hand the police their evidence without keeping and distributing copys
it may help get our lives back in our own hands.

grts.

any new thing this year?

traditions are there to be dealt with,

no 'that is how we do it' prevailed what is now.


now ( 2013)


what will we don't this year?

and what will still happen to someone who does?


if the ignorant could stop the abuse of their mass(es)


if..


even when half of us understood half as much as the other half pretended

had it stopped.