Saying things forgot about....

Thursday, May 15, 2014

just some fracking remarks

these days half of the world evolves around fracking, our future does, the us does, the crimea conflict does, Donetsk does, Cameron does, and the bbc does.
it publishes "science" these days that England is sinking, yes it will have earthquakes,
what in fact? I think they suggest the metropolitan load of concrete.
in places, muddy ones close to the coast it could even be true, but it will surely not exaggerate earthquakes.
except for the sake of the fracking industry.
so I thought it would be nice to compile a guestimate of the scales and kinds of disasters in the make.

recently I realised why fracking uses such immense, unsustainable, environmentally dooming quantitys of water,
now I have read some reports from the north of north America in wich it shows that strategy already failed, shows for me...

and as a challenge (being overall more familiar with English tectonics and lignites) what it would mean for earthquakes.
that was (earth) shocking.

my estimate was that common earthquakes (3-4) for England would generally rise with an ordre of magnitude, or perhaps two.

that is ofcourse when nothing unseemingly happens.

you could for example destabilise the fault that divides Scotland and England, in such a case the maximum magnitude of quakes would easily jump another point.

a little bit more worrying still is why they actually need all that water.
the earth under us is rather full of voids, technically on the level of methane so much as everything is a void , by forcing methane from these carbonates a few things are bound to happen,
simply put the layers targeted will crunch, and loose a load of mass, become more void.

that is on a scale not easily comparable by traditional coalmining. we have no view on what extend the fracked and fracking effects can or will take place. as soon as a layer is targeted it is generally out of reach for inspection, although I think there will be attempts to bore through cheap early fracking projects and access deeper layers.

coal, lignite and shale layers are commonly extensive. they may reach from London to warshaw (rarely) or from warchau to Donetsk (commonly),

where and how such coal layers cross gas and minor-oil sources no one knows.

in how much layers touch under the earth is also pertinently unknown.

well so the reason they need so much water is ..
to keep it from burning..

ok. check coalmines..
did we manage to keep them from burning year in year out?

in some locations in the us I a already a permanent seismic rumble is apparent.
every dust, every crunch btw. behaves like a liquid in comparison to usual geological layers.

or perhaps a swamp is a better way to express it.

in some cases it might even dampen an earthquake, for that reason, but it is more rational to expect something aking to conductivity for tectonic slips.

given the wrong circumstances we may end up creating something like the atjeh quake under a continent.

still, even if earthquakes are on the rise every where fracking is tested or perpetrated, the worst is still to come, we have not even started to touch the potential of fragging, ask the industry,
in practice I doubt projects once started can really be stopped, although ofcourse the halting of operations would achieve something.

in any case, assuming they continue and we see a rise in quake magnitude now already in the order of a whole to one and half points.....
in few years...

it could be that much worse. anyhow, every location that is sensitive to earthquakes, and that is not England very much, will be in a rather extreme risk. if for example in turkey fracking becomes an industry, the catastrophes to come could be of a proportion unknown before.

also and perhaps painfully, the fracking will loose productivity sooner than anyone'd wish..
but the quakes won't stop then.

1000 years for that appears a most optimist estimate.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

geneva 2 peace negotiations.

haven't been here in a while, a surprise is never bad, we are used to weatherforecasts at the start of the year, warm humid dry, all, here where we have the generators we could wish for more wind.

so geneva 2

i just start writing straight ahead, only because it will be very complicated to posit an original thought
and the matter is ofcourse thoroughly complicated i dare to go with so little immediate preparation.

i love that the notion is there we have to start a new thing, or a clean thing, and that is true, the negotiations must optimally express the central points.

a summary is that the syrians do want the regime to change, wich means assad to go, the former state to be replaced by something different, and influential positions and authoritys redistributed.

personally i fully support that, my conviction is no regime justifies torture, and certainly now no regime can still justify it by as much was known from syria three years ago.

i could elaborate, military means, targetting civilians, the inept and impossible casualty registers that are nevertheless maintained and profiled in as consistent as absurd style.
wich is a bad "omen", a bad calculus.

next there is assads position, i want everything you can have nothing, my people are scared, your people are scared, perhaps that works.

surely the definition will sound different in him, however the only way to consider that is to remove assad from the negation(equation). allawites, minoritys, kurds, moderate, and to a further if not that extremely pronounced extend, women and children, civilians, deserve each the safety and protection they need.

the nasty thing here is that the answer is "yes we know, that is not assad"

typically one fear is countered by the other the fear for injustice is countered by the fear for insecurity,

taking things back to the initial perspective, wich they from my point of view very much deserve. the torture, arrests. executions. in 100s and soon thousands hardly anyone in the whole of syria supported assad.

the poison of the terror tale took the usual age of time to rot in.
and so did the horror.

unfortunately we are not done here, erdogan is a complication for the kurds, and such may be polemic or maybe premature, what will surely pay a decisive role is the balance of power.

perhaps it would be nicer to say the balance of sympathisers, it goes too far.
i sympathise with assad, but with none of his state, i sympathise with Russia and i like putin, i don't sympathise with putin or his politics with syria, i sympathise with Obama, and i would want the outcome to be a conceivable succes for him, i trust their methodology and institutionalisms least.

it is the balance of power, or powers.

i have 'ahum' an unfortunate happy lot of experience with helping out balancing power, so i will once again develop some valuable insights,
good i just started writing;)

the basical point is you want to satisfy all. it goes so far that if the division and much to my personal regret i fear it should, in these nazions must take place, a kurdistan, a shia irak, a sunni irak, a sunni irak syria, a shia syria, a secular syria, and perhaps a tad more, it is worth contemplating rewarding the israelians forall the good germans did in the sense of handing them an obligatory palestinean israelian oblast.

perhaps it is not a good idea but the opportunity is relevant. it may be to early to risk iraks deplorable stability, it may be the most relevant part of the whole story.

i am sorry if it is. i have strongly voiced and hoped irak could be federal, that the cooperation and distribution of wealth would hold.

south sudan could become a reminder of the opposite.

in short you would "reward" each protagonist harbour and land in a negotiable yet at least attempted proportional manner. not half easy in syria.

israel i do not fear, i fear a croatisation of israel though. where it stretches coasts and takes people every resource to trade and the seas and oceans.

fortunately it has a coast. since there are at least three factions represented in syria for whom acces to the sea is relevant, and of life interest, it looks like the most problematical detail.

in case syria needs to try and stay whole, assad has to step up. an internationally organised media and campaign infrastructure set up , and elections held, (strongly and transparantly checked domestically)the different interests must be just equaled out, expressing i would think partnership, responsability , reason, the acknowledgement of the interests of the syrian people.

if they will, and if we will know in how far they tried, i wonder.



Personally i try not to be rude. However sometimes i screw up. Basically i will remove, discriminating and hate posts. And comments clearly derivant from well prepared 'neocon' (kapitalist) pr or secret service agents. (aivd , fbi, mossad etc.) Dutch language is welcome. English prefered, sorry if that bothers my fellow countryman who always seem to think they know how to handle their languages. Ill edit this some time;)

wanted terrorist: name silencer aka stealotron

wanted terrorist: name silencer aka stealotron
Through lies and fraud this one is managed to rob 1000000s of the fruits of their work and their voice