a permanent chill

europe got cool, i dont think it is a great sign of changing times, or any guarantee the lack of ozone wont burn a million or more people the coming year. it is actually soemwhat nice, the songs about white christmasses making sense for once, people now in their twenty's peering quite amazed out of their windows at the face of father winter.

people here, where its been cold and snowy and the whole year was rather moderate, in temperatures, at least partially and probably wholly caused by icelands vulcano. THe very obvious challenging and interesting fact is however not brought mainstream, rather that the rich europeans don't shape a definite opinion about climate change after all.

envertheless talk on the street is that , climatechange goes with extremes, and they are right. alltho i have been doubting in the past the curves would depart from an only heating direction, i never doubted at least locally it might leas to less expected effects. well we see droughts were there never were, and floods where there never were. even though they dont represent a meter of ice, they represent the indication that catastrophes in climate swing to two sides.

i am curious to what else this winter will bring. actually i am kind of hoping prolonged wintery weather will kind of bring this fueldriven roadracing madhouse that is europe to its knees.

teach m some repect for good crops, irrigation and drinking water. teach them you cannot endlessly tax the ecosystem for personal profits. it may be a disaster , but icould be the kind of disaster that teaches people something.

we seen all kind of extremes in the graphics, the statistics, but noone yet bothered to plot the incidence of them. oh now they will, and probably lie. but the incidences are amazing. except for meteorites hitting earth and like extreme occurances, i think we have never seen a thing like that, in eg. oxygen metabolism of stromatolites, to name an outpost.

indeed strange effects can already be felt. wether it is on arctic shrimps, whales, or something as essential as the whole amazone region. the good news is that the effords to reforest europe are apparently made, and do have some, but not enough yet of an impact on precipation.

netherlands was rather dry again, someone rooted here and with a climatological interesse, that means as much as half of the planet was to dry, possibly more. this i think is corroborated by the not all to transparant statistics.

there is a long standing theory that developing india and china would lead to so much emission
climate change would accelerate. that this is indeed true is predictable. however i supported still tehir development for many reasons. like egalitarism, but also my belief a technologically developed society has more chances to counter the effects and vices of the climate change we were anyhow inducing.

next came the theory that developing china would actually lead to global cooling. so much dust to get into the atmosphere, that a blanket of dust would hinder sunlight from warming the planet.

i considered that plausible, but where others were still in full swing of denial, i happened to be convinced of the reality of climate change, and ozone damage, and the farfetching implications of each of that, not in the least in the not so moderate climates.

so i actually thought, if developing china gives us an ice age, that is only a bonus.
at least frozen water doesnt depart into outer space at the same pace.

when i look at current weather trends with the same sincerity i have been watching the past decades, yes tehre is a trend. before three years we wouldn't see snow hardly. not in any measure, in the walk of twenty years ice and frost all but parted from our nation, and with that from most peoples short lived and not educatedly critical memory.

thats what you get if you bother about sexarrests and real or purported attacks on old ladys.
20 years of that and evrything you think is vile, coloured and shamefull.

how the media uses the individuals psychology against them.

so having described the current state of affairs, i am wondering what will the next two months bring for europe, and less of my responsability perhaps, the whole of eurasia.

my impression is that altho climate curves tend to be tangentially hyperbolic, and extremes to either side (drought flood, heat cold) are among the possibillity's over the whole the picture can be graphically described with just a few curves.

so allthough we seem to witness a dust impaired iceage, (where saddam, china , the industrialist past and vulcano's all contribute) the heating curve, that is perhaps overly contributed to carbon emissions (i myself think desertification and deforestation are way more prime in that then physics is prepared to recognise), will continue to rise for now. only when there are no major incidents of droughts and excessive heat we may assume the dust is winning.

the next factor as underestimated as it is underreported (i think some of the history of that rests in this blog and perhaps other censored publications of mine) is the ozone layer.

if people think that by censoring the mainstream media this phenomenon has become innocent, they couldn't be more wrong.
it will be a major factor in our climate, our being outsides, our crops and lives and health, for in the very least 70 years to come. and probably only be possibly repaired completely in the ordre of 300 years.

nevertheless a lot of people bought the story and now speak crap about the ozone layer.
not very helpfull if you want a somewhat complete picture of how to deal with climatological effects of industrialisation and population expansion.

not very helpfull where we actually now know that most of what is left to us can only still be obtained by crowdsourcing.

generally however we can just add the vulcanoes and india, china to the trend and assume a 2-3 degrees drop in temperatures this winter over the last is probable.

how that translates into ice and snow cover i dont know. it would also depend other factors, a chilly northerner wind over russia, eastern winds, in short the atmospheric conditions will define the precise outcome.

for example it is quite possible that when scandinavia are heading towards the heaviest winter almost in living emmory, enthrlands and eg. france remain greatly spared from that. where both are less influenced by the continental eurasian climate as by the atlantic. its actually quite probable that will be and it is a valuable indication about the way the trend is working this year, what will happen.

hypothesis for the next years and wether the trend towards cold winters (like past 2 years) , is a definite. or even if it is a freak, how the next hils and valleys of the amplitudal sinusses will shape. (for example perhaps we get cooling and heating in intervals, allthough my personal impression is the whole of matter that consists the earths impact on its own climate is to overwhelming to allow for that much irregularity.)

so what we probably get is hotter summers , at least in many places, (not in netherlands eg, a hotter summer for the rest of europe translates in a better chance for cloudcover here).
people in teh rich nations should be made more aware what disaster this constitutes for poorer people in poorer nations. it is also another unpleasant fact neglected mainstream, for many reasons of control.

next it seems the dust really manages to get us colder winters, (for me it is rather a hopefull event) that means in the rainier seasons we will have opportunity to collect water.

water btw, should in every case be allowed to soak the soils. there is no better protection
against droughts then soaked territory.

we will have to prioritise watering our continents soils over simple luxurys like a winter without snow. in many cases over other human requirements almost akin to humanrights, like housing, settling, recreation or abstract notions like a GNP.

on a sidenote, allthough nothing exceptional, even netherlands a nation of rain and frogs(that btw all died through a pollution related skininfection). was drier again last year. perhaps not an absolute record, but in the least showing the trend towards droughts is strongly apparent.

what we can do about a winter like that? not so much, adapt our consumption, take care heating gets delivered, and take care foodreserves will be adequate. all the rest is in the hands of fate. powers greater then us will decide. where the extremes get more extreme, there is no way to predict avalanches, snowed in isolation or traffic incidents. they will just depend on local circumstance, coincedence and the irks of winds and atmospheric phenomena.

in some 5-10 years we may (if the trend becomes a definite one) be better able to prevent some damage by mere interference. (like: russia snowed in after a hot summer last year, and so it will this year)

although russias climate is better predictable then northwestern europes, however, nothing is certain.
otoh if poland stays frozen over from now untill januar we know both russia will be very cold, and the winter will last rather long.

because with all this hassle about those 'cold' winters, we tend to forget this is the first to show signs of prolonged duration. earlier in the case, what would theoretically hint at into februar (instead of mostly januar) as well.

i am quite curious when and what the spring will bring.